What cat ownership tells us about All Blacks fans

By the time you read this it may well be too late.

For weeks, nay months, Aotearoa has been a country on edge, a nation in limbo awaiting an uncertain fate.

Just as some of us have been predicting and praying, others have debated and discussed. Others still either have no idea what was going on or just pretended it wasn’t happening at all.

But now, depending on what time these words reach you, it’s all over. No, not the blimmin election – I’m talking about the blimmin rugby.

Everybody knows New Zealand is a place that puts plenty of worth in its national game. Kiwis play it, watch it and bet on it, and from the most tender ages our children take the field as parents abuse the ref and hope they’re raising the next All Black.

For the uninitiated, that was the team that played Ireland in this morning’s Rugby World Cup quarter-final.

And, while the result of that match was a mystery at the time of writing, the national reaction to a win or loss is now anything but.

For the past few weeks, Stuff has been running the results of a nationwide survey produced in collaboration with researchers at Victoria University.

More than 6000 people responded to the The Politics and (Mental) Health State of the Nation Survey and, having last week focused on all things politics, today it’s all about the rugby.

Beginning with the world cup that’s currently in play, psychology professor Marc Wilson says participants were evenly split on the All Blacks’ chances of winning.

But as for what sets these camps of optimists and pessimists apart? Plenty.

According to Wilson, optimists generally reported slightly better mental well-being, are more agreeable and tend not to experience rapidly changing emotional highs and lows.

“They also have a greater tendency to lie to themselves. This goes hand in hand with self-esteem – research says that most of us move through the world with an overly positive lens on the world, and it’s depressed folks who are more accurate in their perceptions.”

What’s really striking, he says, is that rugby is a more important part of their identities, and they’re notably more black and white in their support for the All Blacks.

“Interestingly, while we’re behind the All Blacks, only 31% said that they are the best rugby team in the world (40% disagreed).”

Wilson says there’s something called ‘social identity theory’, an idea that people attach some of their self-esteem to things and groups that will give it a boost. Sports teams are supported because it boosts our sense of worth to know others think that team is good, and when they win we feel like we helped make it happen.

“So, the stronger people’s identification with their rugby team, the more optimistic they are. Which is great until that team loses…”

On to the All Black pessimists, who Wilson says are a little more paranoid, and a little more lonely.

“The stronger someone’s rugby identity the more likely they are to believe in conspiracies, but that’s driven almost entirely by their endorsement of (the survey statement) ‘The All Blacks were deliberately poisoned before their 1995 rugby World Cup Final against South Africa’.

“Overall, 33% of the sample agreed to some degree with that particular conspiracy theory, and that’s pretty consistent with previous surveys.”

Regarding differences between genders, Wilson found women are more optimistic about a cup win and their “rugby identification” is notably weaker.

“Men are happier when their team wins, and they think it’s more important for NZ that the ABs win. Men also say that rugby is a more central part of being a ‘true’ New Zealander.

“Men are statistically more likely to agree that ‘proper’ rugby is still a ‘man’s game’ but even then, only 17% agree with that statement anyway.”

Wilson says while men are more likely to say they’re sport fans, there are no gender differences in support of women’s rugby, or men’s or women’s soccer. Nor are there differences in rugby support by rural versus urban locations.

“There is a very weak tendency for older people to feel more positive about women’s rugby than younger folk.”

Also, 60% of participants said they didn’t have a favourite rugby union team, though in spite of a disproportionately large subsample from Wellington, the Crusaders are the most popular provincial team. The “Tawa Ducks” also got a vote.

Wilson says the last time he surveyed Kiwis about a Rugby World Cup was in 2011 when he found people were then much more positive about the chances of an All Black win (about 70%)

“But we also conducted that before the first game – I suspect the initial loss to France set the baseline. Who knows what we’ll wake up to on Sunday?”

That 2011 survey also asked questions allowing researchers to assess the strength of people’s national identity, nationalism and patriotism towards NZ. Greater identification with rugby was found to be associated with stronger feelings about all three.

“Nationalism tends to predict more prejudiced attitudes towards people, countries or groups who are different from us. We’re fortunate that this doesn’t play out in the nationalistic hooliganism we sometimes see on our TV screens in the context of European football, for example.”

Collating the rugby results with other survey questions, Wilson found people with tattoos are more likely to feel strongly about rugby and less likely to be vegetarian or vegan.

“Having a pet is associated with less positive feelings about the All Blacks, and in particular, people who have cats care less about what other people think about the team.”

By the way, people who like Marmite are more likely to agree the All Blacks are the world’s best rugby team than those who prefer Vegemite.

But finally, although we’re undoubtedly a nation divided by our love or lack thereof for the national game, Wilson says there’s one thing plenty of us agree on.

“Women are more likely to say rugby is too important to NZ but 60% of all participants agree to some extent it shouldn’t be.”